. investigators are looking for answers after it slammed into the runway alt san francisco international airport. we're standing by for a live report on exactly what we know about the deadly crash of flight 214 there and what's the status of the victims of the crash and go to our correspondent as soon as we're able to. right now i want to start with our top political story, a remarkable strategy being considered right now in some quarters of the republican party for how to save that party. i've kind of got a spot spot for

sean hannity. i think it's probably unwitting on his part but if you want to know and understand the psyche and the mood and the strategic thinking that's guiding the republican party at any given moment well hannity is just an unusually good barometer of that. to me that's what makes him unique. they have all their own quirks and he's first and foremost a republican party man and wants the democrats to look bad and lose. he's more than happy to completely reverse himself or totally ignore past pronouncement of principle if it serves that underlying agenda. the contortions this requires can be absurd but if you pay close enough attention can be very revealing. because what he's really doing is expressing the message, the strategy that's gaining favor or that's in favor at that moment among republicans. case in point, the debate over immigration. in the immediate wake of last november's election, it's an

election that republicans like hannity were absolutely convinced they were going to win right up the polls closed hannity dramatically announced he had evolved on immigration. >> we've got to get rid of the immigration issue altogether. it's simple for me to fix it. i think you control the border first. you create a pathway and that is a position i've evolved on. because you know what, it just -- it's got to be resolved, the majority of people here, if some people have criminal records are here, law abiding, participating four years their kids are born here, you know, it's first secure the border, pathway to citizenship done, you know, whatever little penalties you want to put in there then it's done. >> and the incentive for him to say that was obvious, surprise defeat of mitt romney. chalked up initially by republicans and just everybody else to a record high turnout of

nonwhite voters. nothing for them to get shellacked but the results pointed to a different problem for the gop. latinos rapidly growing group had given president obama more than 70% of their votes. the urgency for the gop to change its tune seemed obvious. that was eight months ago. but since then a bipartisan bill has passed the senate that would basically achieve everything hannity said he wanted to achieve, $30 billion in border security, the border surge, a 1-year path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants with clean records with a series of fine and penalties. it passed the senate by a 68-342 vote late last month but now there's grave doubt anything like it or anything at all will make its way out of the republican-controlled house and why? the strategic thinking in the republican party seems to be changing. and who better to express that changing thinking than sean hannity. not only do i doubt that the current legislation will solve the immigration problem, he wrote recently, but it also won't help the gop in future

elections. so hannity has evolved again, it would seem. just getting rid of the immigration issue is no longer the top of his agenda. this mirrors a broader trend among republicans as benji docume documented. a growing sentiment that the gop doesn't need to do any speck outreach. the challenge republicans face going forward isn't how to appeal to more nonwhite voters but win over and turn out even more white voters. two beliefs seem to be driving this. one is that latinos are a liberal leaning voting bloc to start with for all sorts of reasons having nothing to do with immigration largely out of reach for the republican party. by this logic republicans see immigration reform as an electoral threat, something that will simply add millions of more democratic voters to the rolls. second belief there is a large untapped poll of white voters out there. there was a marked decline in white voter participation between 2008 and 2012.

5 million white voters showed up in 2008 did not turn out last year. consider that mitt romney took 59% of the white vote overall. if those extra white voters had shown up could have made the race a lot closer. if a future republican candidate could turn those white voters out and build on that 59% share romney got, well, then maybe the gop could still win without broadening its ethnic base that raises all sorts of troubling issues. only getting more diverse as a society. what would happen if the fault line between our two major parties bail race. one became the party of white people and the other of nonwhites. is that even possible it could happen? is that what republicans like hannity, republicans who are suddenly saying, hey, you know, we don't have incentive to do immigration reform after all? is that what they want to happen. i want to bring in shawn trendy, msnbc contributor maria these ka

kumar and dino garza for the hispanic group and dave weigel, senior political correspondent at slate.com. and shawn, we'll start with you because you made a big contribution to this discussion, maybe even got this discussion started recently with a series you wrote at real clear politics, if people haven't read it, i would encourage them to look at why. why they shouldn't con sen tate but being the party of white people. can you take us through the logic behind how that would work. i do think up front it is important to make the distinction you did. what should the gop do versus what wins elections and if you look at the demographics of 2012 as you pointed out, you know, the latino share of the electorate basically keeps pace with population growth same what

the african-american growth but a marked decline of the number of whites who turned out. we are talking about the gop base, this gop base strategy is completely not the way to get these voters to turn out. it's white working class somewhat rural voters in the north kind of perot voters turned off by both candidates in 2012 -- >> these are older voters, if they're perot voters they've been around for awhile. a lot, it's been interpreted by people on the right. limbaughs and hannitys saying this is further proof the republican party isn't conservative enough. we think of the republican party, think of the south and should be more southern friendly but you're saying, no, look in other state. >> that's right, exact opposite of what limbaugh and people are saying, as a matter of fact, we're talking about voters in kind of southeastern ohio, voters in western wisconsin, places where, you know, the gop southern message doesn't necessarily play particularly well where the gop probably has to liberalize its economic

message or at least change its pitch from what mitt romney was trying to sell. >> so when you hear this kind of discussion, i'm curious, what do you think about where the republican party needs to be looking. >> the republican party have to have a vision and vision means long term. my observation has been everybody who has any nast aspiration, rubio, gin daal, you name it has come out for immigration and a path to citizenship. the gop has come out for a path to citizenship. anybody with national aspirations has come out for a path to citizenship. the folks who have not who resisted a little more are ones at the local level who fear being primary. they're trying to do the best of a difficult situation. >> i mean it seeps it's a little more than a local national divide. i can think of to me like a ted cruz has national ambition. >> listen to what ted is saying. he wants to expand legal

immigration and double the number of folks coming legally. he has asked to actually increase the number of visa opportunities into america five times what it is today so he's not against immigration reform. i guess it depends how you define it. is it a path to citizenship or learn from the lessons of the past and fix -- >> right. let's talk in a little bit and have a little time for this a little more about how specifically immigration fits into this discussion but sort of more on this, have you noticed what we're talking about in the opening here. has the conversation shifted in the republican party about the urgency of appealing to nonwhite voters and latinos in particular over the last eight months? >> it has to a certain extent but coming from the political pundits. i don't see it coming from the actual leadership itself. what we're seeing is a fear maybe that immigration reform has gotten out of control. talking about the base who may

become more strident. there is an openness on part of the party itself to engage in the issue of immigration reform and welcomed it. >> when you step back. sean, what you're describing is identifying for a populist candidate to overtake the republican party. plus taking a step back this is the party of the koch brothers. they won't let a populist candidate come in and overtake the party and just like they're not going to win the latino vote overnight i don't see a populist candidate coming overnight and winning this swath of the republican party. yes, ted cruz is quite popular in texas but also one of the worst performing state when is it comes to latino participation. they have 2.3 million latinos n unregistered for voters. it's not in the interest of the republican party to look at this and say we need more white voters. it's not just white voters

they're turning off a whole swath of white female voters with their agenda and have to start looking at not just how do you start wooing the disaffected white voter but changing your policies and brand so, yes, you may be able to win the next congressional race but what will you do six, seven years when the demographics respect on your side or are your policies. >> i want to pick up on this and talked about the demographic changes so want to talk about how long that process is going to take to play out and how it will open and get to that to a second. first the latest on the crash of that boeing 777 in san francisco yesterday. it killed at least 2 people. asiana flight 214 crashed and at a press conference the two fatalities were chinese women born in 1996 and 1997 whose seats were at the back of the plane. for the latest to miguel almaguer outside san francisco general hospital where some of

the passengers were taken. what is the latest out there. >> reporter: 182 passengers were treated at low bay area hospitals. some of the most seriously injured treat at san francisco general hospital. they saw some 53 patients, half of them were children. we know that this morning six patients remain in critical condition including one child. we're told so many patients were arriving at this hospital they came in four different waves. that was a similar scene at bay area hospitals across this region. some of the injured had some broken bones, internal bleeding and some had some burn, we're told that many of the victims when they arrived here were certainly shocked and it took some time for them to realize what was going on, again, six patients remain in critical condition here at san francisco general hospital. of those six patients one is a small child. there are other patients recovering at other bay area hospitals. certainly going to be a long couple of days for those survivors who are bruised and

beaten, back to you. >> all right, nbc's miguel almaguer reporting from san francisco. thanks for that. we'll get back to this conversation about the public party and its identity crisis. that's after this. (girl ) yeah, right. (guy) i wannna catch a falcon! (girl) we should do that. (guy) i caught a falcon. (guy) you could eat a bug. let's do that. (guy) you know you're eating a bug. (girl) because of the legs. (guy vo) we got a subaru to take us new places. (girl) yeah, it's a hot spring. (guy) we should do that. (guy vo) it did. (man) how's that feel? (guy) fine. (girl) we shouldn't have done that. (guy) no. (announcer) love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru. new clean whipped creme foundation from covergirl. a delicious new recipe whipped up by clean makeup. they took their clean fresh foundation, added a dash of hydration, then whipped it to smooth matte perfection. finally, a non-drying whip that wears like a dream! ♪

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i want to put some exit poll data up on the screen, the white vote in two recent presidential elections comparing how white votes and how they turned out in 2004 and 2012. you can see the percentage of the electorate dropped. this has been a modern story dropping every presidential election from 77% in '04 to 72% this fall. how did those white voters vote? george w. bush winning re-election. 58% of the white vote so mitt romney losing, you know, by what 4.5 million votes last year

compared to bush winning in '04. romney improved his showing among white voters but because the share of the electorate dropped that didn't translate into victory. sorry i'm losing my voice but what do you make of this conversation taking place about how to balance the need to outreach or whether there's a need to outreach? >> you're right hannity is a good sounding wood board for this. the electorate they'd like to have. one i talked to said barack obama is basically stunt casting. they're not going to have another charismatic biracial candidate until somebody we've never heard of takes the nomination. when they make fun of hillary clinton of being a golden girl that's part of the message you'll have another white candidate going and if those numbers tick at all, then ohio is harder for you to win because i think ohio you get obama winning 40% of the white vote.

something that the democrats didn't think they could win with. he wins by bringing out black voters, hauck income, vass, they think they changed the map that way. they're pretty hard-nosed about how they can hold a house too and they're right. if every district that had less than -- more than 25% hispanic votes that republicans hold now if they lost although they'd have the house. now, they gerrymandered in a way so they have mostly white strongholds, low minority populations where they can make it and the places where they do have a high minority population mike maria was saying were participation in the electorate is not that high. >> interesting thing we talk about in terms of presidential elections but you were talking about you see a national and more local split. i think that local split is maybe embodied in the house and look at the house republicans. the open question whether immigration will pass the house. well, as dave is saying no

incentive for any house member to be thinking about latino voters and worried about these largely white districts. does that become or has that already become self-reinforcing where you get 2014, we talked in the show about the disparity between presidential turn out and midterm turn out. if all these republican congressmen ignoring latino voters get re-elected in 2014 and a foo more get in there does this reinforce the thinking they've been embarking on? >> look, if people are looking at just the presidential election and hispanic that's short-sighted too. myopic. i think maria made a good point about texas. like the state of arizona where you have barbara cook patrick and cinema, one within four percentage points, immigration is going to matter and how you outreach and engage the hispanic community in states like that is also going to make the difference whether you get to

win in congressional districts, as well. it's not just about a national race but at the local race, as well where i think immigration will play a huge role. >> that's right. what daniel is saying, what you're refer to, sure, the republican party can sit tight and go after congressional races, they'll be fine but where are those congressional kates that won statewide office or run for stat. forget the presidency because of the massive demographic shifts not just in the latino community, african-american, asian and young white women they have to make sure they're changing their brand in order for them -- statewide office, not just the gerrymander districts but who among those house representatives in the gerrymander distributes have the affinity of wanting to -- >> and, sean, maybe you could speak to this. is there in some states i see how that's the case for republicans and already is the case in some states where there is a growing latino population, for instance and republicans have to be sensitive of that but not true in every state. your case, republicans -- not

talking about 538 electoral votes but getting past 270. and you're saying by concentrating on white votersless a path not just in 2016 but going further beyond that they can reach both of those thresholds. >> people say how do you make up for the loss of texas which i don't think happens for a long time but the fact of the matter is states like iowa, minnesota, wisconsin and michigan have the same number of electoral votes as texas does so -- those states are largely white. i think there's another point to be made here, even in birdier states, you know, arizona went more strongly for mitt romney when you look at the nation as a whole voted than george w. bush in 2004 and poster child for what you should not do to reach out to hispanic voters. working class whites move toward the republican. i'm not advocating arizona as a national strategy but look at the cold calculus of politics it works out different than a lot expect. >> there are some more questions but we say the white vote, we

always talk is the latino vote and too monolithically and maybe about the white vote too and want to look at what that coalition would look at if it's even possible to get the numbers you're talking about. we'll pick it up after this. lower advertised price they'll match it at the register. nice! oh my gosh! bring in your last grocery receipt to walmart this 4th of july and see for yourself.

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can leave annoying residue. but new pam leaves up to 99% less residue. new pam helps you keep it off. so, sean, i wanted to pick up on this pick and maria talked about it earlier. more economically downscale white voters not so much in the south but the north but econo c economically populist message. i get that but what maria raised can that message and can a candidate like that co-exist in today's republican party which really, you know, for lack of a better way to put it worship the private sector, you know, the koch brothers republican party, can that even co-exist or would you lose a chunk of the republican party by going after these voters? you. > might lose some of the donor base but not that many voters. one thing we'd all agree on on

the panels the republican party has to change, the kind of mitt romney face of the party doesn't sell well. you have to be careful. mitt romney did come out ahead of barack obama on the economy and deficit question in the exit polls. so the question is how does the republican party change? does it want to reach out, become more bush-like if you will in terms of outreach to latinos or become more bush-like in its economic policy and message. you might remember bush was actually the compassionate conservative but i think the kind of more libertarian economic message of mitt romney just doesn't appeal to a majority of voters. it won't appeal to downscale whites. >> you're saying the long-term -- you did a chart that laid it out going for the election and white people party election, you are saying they'll get 78% of the white vote and mitt romney getting 59%. reagan got 63 when he ran i in '84. you're saying they could drive it up to 74. >> the interesting thing about

the white vote when you control for the economy it's been moving naturally a tick of 1% a year. reagan got 63% of the white vote but running with 7% economic growth at his back. mitt romney came close to that running against an incouple bet with 2% growth at his back so take a look at the bigger pick tour and say, yeah, i think some shift is possible. >> when i hear it i think the younger white voters are a lot less conservative and especially we had this -- we were talking yesterday about the republican autopsy of the election and talked about issues like gay marriage being gateway issues and can't have a conversation with them until we get this off the table. i look at that and say how can the republican party continue this with people not 50, 60 years old? >> bigger picture, the country is not monolithic. every presidential election talking about picking off states, iowa, barack obama wins the white vote has gay marriage. new hampshire, the white vote isn't going to be static and changes dramatically state by

state and wins 90% of the vote in mississippi. the midwest, this hope that whites are going to come back to the republican party naturally based on the trends of the past. there were reasons why white voters flood the democrats in the '60s and '70s, go back to stories of iowa in the '70s. you'll find panic about crime in chicago, crime in urban areas. you don't have that now. what is the motivation for a white backlash a fear of crime a law and order focus? you had immigration a little bit but nothing comparable to the crack wars and things that made people panic, riots in the ' the '60s, '70s. you need note conditions again, hopefully we're not getting to, to re-create the animus to those that didn't have a history of racial voting. instead if the current trends happily are more people graduating from college, a white -- the white vote being more liberal on almost every issue as they come into the

electorate. i don't think they stay -- there are issues in the future we can't predict but generally the issues that made people republican in michigan, we still talk about reagan and perot democrats. look at the detroit suburbs when they were panicked about crime for detroit when reagan was running. look at them now. barack obama one them twice. how do you swing them back? in michigan rick snyder can win them by running as a more moderate republican. compare any other country where the conservative party has been able to win back minorities or suburbs they've moderated. >> that's right. >> well, so, let's connect this. we tease this. let's connect it to the immigration debate right now. this was lindsey graham, one of the members of the gang of eight advocating for immigration and talking about the consequence of the republican party not doing it. >> if it fails and we are blamed for its failure, our party is in trouble with hispanics no because we're conservative but because of the rhetoric and the way we've handled this issue. i want to get reattached to the

hispanic community to sell conservatism and pass presence sieve immigration reform and grow this party. the party's got to be bigger than utah and south carolina. the hispanic community is very close to our values but we have driven them away over this issue. let's fix this problem for the good of the country and for the good of the party and this bill does that. >> and, daniel, i want to ask you about that after this. [ male announcer ] your favorite foods fighting you? fight back fast with tums. calcium-rich tums starts working so fast you'll forget you had heartburn. ♪ tum tum tum tum tums you'll forget you had heartburn. for a strong bag that grips the can... ♪ get glad forceflex. small change, big difference. aren't always the most obvious. take the humble stevia plant, with a surprising secret to share: sweetness. truvia sweetener.

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vietnam in 1972. [ all ] fort benning, georgia in 1999.

[ male announcer ] usaa auto insurance is often handed down from generation to generation. because it offers a superior level of protection and because usaa's commitment to serve military members, veterans, and their families is without equal. begin your legacy, get an auto insurance quote. usaa. we know what it means to serve. lindsey graham. i guess i'm curious. what do you expect to happen if it gets through the house, if we have immigration reform this year, what do you expect that to mean sort of -- we've seen two straight elections republicans have not cracked 30% or barely cracked 30% among hispanics. do you expect that to be 35%, 40%. how big a problem does this solve in your mind? >> well, we'd like to see a path to citizenship. that would be ideally what we'd

like to see and between employer/employee and so we can get the economy back on track here. now, what's interesting is that a poll just came out a little bit ago and the question was, you know, would you support like marco rubio or ryan and the numbers that they got were almost similar to romney but when they changed the question, they asked him, what if i told you that marco rubio was instrumental in passing -- in reform that led a path to citizenship. it went up to 54% were more likely to -- >> you're talking about hispanic voters. >> yeah, so we have this the first poll you were talking about. the same one i think. this is from maybe two weeks ago. latino decisions poll. so this was rubio versus clinton in 2016. clinton, 66%. rubio, 28%. last year it was obama, 71%, romney, 27%. so there's really no statistical difference between how romney

did last year -- >> he's not running for president and hasn't made a campaign but if he would have owned the issue and embraced his his p hispannicity -- >> how much can he really own this? that's been the whole story. >> i think this is what lindsey graham gets. before pete wilson very anti-immigrant to go back in history a little bit, california was a swing state. >> it was a sun belt state. yeah. >> then what happened is they created really harsh restrictions and now latinos felt it was an insult. it closed up california. lindsey graham sees the future and understands in order for the republican party to move forward and win the presidency, win that golden jewel he needs to make sure latino voters are open. marco rubio may all of a sudden may not be the best candidate but opens up the party to the latino vote and says, you know what, you are not only palpable but we worked on the front lines

to make sure we have a path to citizenship and want you back and it opens up for them to talk about economic issues and that the latino voter just like american voters, they want job, access to health care and make sure hair kids get a good education and want the american dream. that's not going to happen short of the american party balking -- >> the interesting thing about california example. if you look at the exit polls, the republican share of the latino vote is constant from 1988 through 2004. what doesn't change, what happened nationally during the 1990s, the white vote around silicon valley swung heavily democrat. that's what lost california for the republicans. now, if you get rid of the immigration issue, take it off the table, does that allow for further outreach? i think it's an open question, good question but i don't know the answer. >> you're not of the opinion of lindsey graham then that this -- that there's an automatic upside with the hispanic vote for republicans if they pass this?

>> i think there is some upside. i don't know how much it is. look at george w. bush running against george kerry, a perfect storm for them to win latino votes and mitt romney, the absolute worth outreach candidate against barack obama and talking about a dishes of 17%. how much of that is due to mitt romney's stance on a path to citizenship? is it 5%, 10%? i don't know the answer. >> lindsey graham kept hitting the nail on the head. it's the tone of the way people talk about immigration reform and if you come from a party where they're saying we don't want to listen to you, you aren't american that turns voters off. the moment you're saying we recognize that we need you, then you create an opportunity for -- to have conversation. there's a whole swath of latinos that are in evangelical communities that under all the best circumstances they would vote for the republican party. >> there are -- the polling on this and i think we alluded to this at the top here. if you talk about sort of basic issues, you know, economic principles and values, you are finding that latino community is much more democratic than

republican in terms of sort of its basic philosophical views on economic issues. >> i think that there has been -- there's a dependency, a disproportionate dependency has been created that lipids towards looking towards government for assistance. unfortunately. >> i don't think that. >> but that's -- >> is that the way to -- >> actually that's -- go i'm sorry. that's true. there is a dependency streak within the hispanic community they lean more on government. >> they're the least ones on the government -- >> i can tell you this, i can tell you this, as the lead libre initiative, self-reliance, free markets, rule of law and these kind of things that message is absolutely embraced within the hispanic community when we take it to the hispanic community so i disagree with mr. trende when he says you have to shift away from an economic message. that's exactly what they're needing and maria teresa was exactly right. it is about jobs and about the economy and educational

opportunities. when we talk about these issues, but when what gets held up is this immigration issue where, yeah, this tough kind of rhetoric is keeping them at bay, i think if they were to -- i think we need to -- we need to know that you care about the least of those. that you care about the less fortunate, that you're going to do something about that and that's when i think you'll open up to the other issues and these kind of things you'll see. >> i want to thank daniel garza and maria teresa kumar. we'll talk to the chairman of the ntsb on the crash in san francisco right after this. totao that. (girl ) yeah, right. (guy) i wannna catch a falcon! (girl) we should do that. (guy) i caught a falcon. (guy) you could eat a bug. let's do that. (guy) you know you're eating a bug. (girl) because of the legs. (guy vo) we got a subaru to take us new places. (girl) yeah, it's a hot spring. (guy) we should do that. (guy vo) it did. (man) how's that feel? (guy) fine. (girl) we shouldn't have done that. (guy) no.

(announcer) love. it's what makes a subaru, a subaru.

wellso ready.o go look? lots of options, huh? i can help you narrow it down. ok thanks. this one's smudge free. smudge-free. really? and this one beeps when you leave the door open. get those brand name bells and whistles, even on a budget, with red white and blue savings. thank you! more saving. more doing. that's the power of the home depot. buy now and save $300 on this stainless steel samsung refrigerator. we're waiting for a press conference later on the crash of that boeing 777 in san francisco yesterday that killed at least two people and injured 180 more. asiana airlines flight 214 crash landed after it came in at an awkward angle and clipped its tail. the president of the airline set a press conference this morning the two fattals were chinese women born in 1996 and 1997

whose seats were at the back of the plane. the national transportation safety board arrived on scene late last night and took control of the investigation. we have with us right now the ntsb chairman, deborah hersman. deborah, thanks for joining us. you've been on the scene since last night. what can you tell us you learned so far? >> i can tell you we had a couple of investigators here from california yesterday afternoon. they were able to secure the black boxes and get them out on a red-eye under federal supervision yesterday evening. we arrived around midnight, had an opportunity to go to the accident site and i can tell you that we're very thankful that we don't have more fatalities and injuries given the devastation that i saw. >> so you guys have recovered the black box. we always hear about these black boxes in crashes like this. how key is that to sort of unlocking the mystery of what happened? is that really sort of the holy grail? >> i will tell you the flight data recorders and cockpit voice recorders are sometimes the key

to solving these investigations, very, very helpful. hundreds of parameters on the flight data recorder that can tell us what the airplane was doing, what was being commanded at the time. the cockpit voice recorder will tell us not just about the last moments right before the crash, but the minutes and the hours before the crash so we can understand the communication, the coordination and any issues that were raised in the cockpit. >> and so has that -- i mean it was recovered. has it been like preliminarily reviewed at this point or when will that play out? >> the recorders left here in san francisco on a red-eye flight just before midnight. they were scheduled to arrive back in d.c. very first thing this morn. they'll be escorted back to our labs and within the first 24 hours we hope to do a preliminary audition. that's to make sure that the data is there, the quality is good. there wasn't any damage from the crash that information was recorded and we'll have a sense

of that hopefully within the next 24 hours. >> and obviously you know we have all the reporting out there about how the plane was coming in at a weird angle. it seems to be, you know, involved in this crash here. any sense what kind of error could have led to that? >> you know, we haven't ruled anything out at this point. it's still very early in the investigation. we've been here for literal a few hours with our go team and need to review the recorders and document the perishable evidence on scene. certainly we want to do some interviews of the crew, of the survivor, of witnesses and piece all of those things together with the air traffic control tapes and radar data and we want to corroborate all of that information to get a really good picture of what happened. >> also i'm curious. have you guys had a chance to talk with the flight crew and to just get their perspective on what happened? >> federal law enforcement officials did engage with the flight crew very early but the

ntsb has not yet had a chance to interview the crew members. we hope to do that over the course of the next couple of days. >> and finally, i mean, you know, you talk about -- i've heard this a lot how almost miraculous -- there's unfortunately two people dead but it could have been much, much worse. how much is this a result of what we have learned, what you folks have learned over the years from previous crashes, how much have we been able to learn from previous crashes that may have saved lives yesterday? >> well, i tell you, we have to give tremendous credit to the aviation community for the hard work that they have done over the years, the manufacturers with respect to aircraft, the operators with respect to their programs and their crew training. the pilots for proficiency and so we have had very safe commercial aviation system here in the u.s. but i think that crash last night, yesterday really reminds us why it's so important to be vigilant all the time.

when we look at what happened in that crash it absolutely could have been a lot worse. >> yeah, i don't fly that much but i know the next time we're coming in for the final approach there i guess they'll call it i'll be a lot more sure to listen to the flight crew. thank you to ntsb chairman deborah hersman. rick perry for president. i'll tell you why that's not as weird as you might think although it is still kind of weird after this. marco! polo! this metal frame pool on rollback, you save $80! woo! fire up the savings. this 4 burner grill on rollback, you save $11. how bout all these bikes on rollback? like this mongoose adult bike, you save over $20! get more summer for your money at walmart's super summer savings event going on right now at your local walmart.

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i remember august 23rd because i had felt something i never felt before in my life. an earthquake right here on the east coast in new york. well, okay, not totally true. i was sitting at my desk at work listening to cheesy music on pandora when everybody else started making news. the whole building had started shaking but i was oblivious to it. yeah, there was a literal earthquake 5.8 on the richter scale stretching from virginia to new york on that august day two years ago. then the very next day there was

a political earthquake or what seemed at the time. what gallop released its newest poll on the presidential contest and found a new front-runner, rick perry less than two weeks jumping into the race surging into first place with 29% and threatening to leave mitt romney in the dust. kind of made sense up until that point romney had been the luckiest republican alive. there was a clear, huge, gaping opening for a credible conservative to take him out and there had been all year. the conservative base was in revolt against the party establishment. a party establishment that was basically personified by romney. perry seemed like a more natural fit for the grass roots. but because he was also the governor of a major state, someone who had proven he could raise big money and win big elections it seemed like the party establishment would be comfortable with him. so when that poll came out two years ago it looked like mitt romney's luck was quickly running out. i think you know what happened then. >> i think americans just don't know sometimes which mitt romney

they're dealing with. was it -- was it before he was before the social programs from the standpoint of he was for standing up for roe versus wade before he was against roe versus wade. >> those of you will be 21 by november the 12th, i ask for your support and your vote. >> the third agency of government, i would do away with the education, the -- [ laughter ] >> commerce and let's see -- >> oh, my. >> i can't. the third one i can't, sorry. oops. >> all of that is what caused this to happen to rick perry's poll numbers. a steady merciless fallout in the fall of 2011. by the time the new hampshire primary rolled around he got less than 1%, just 1,764 votes in the entire state. by that point everyone figured poor rick had had enough and would just drop out, but, no, the morning after new hampshire

he sent out a tweet showing himself in jogging shorts and announcing he was moving on to the, quote, next leg of the marathon, the south carolina primary. but perry was doing so badly he didn't even meet the trishhold cry tear for inclusion in the debate on cnn. cnn waived the rules and decided to let him in anyway. but then the day of the big debate came and he decided not to show up and instead dropped out of the race and endorsed newt gingrich. somebody did the math and spent $16 million on the complain and received 14,321 votes. he paid more than a thousand bucks per vote. that, ladies and gentlemen, was one disastrous presidential campaign. and it's why the reports that keep coming out of texas seem so weird. the perry supposed is interested in running again in 2016. maybe it's all a bluff or maybe it's a joke or something. we'll probably find out a lot more tomorrow when perry is

supposed to announce whether he'll seek a fourth term for governor in 2014. let's say perry really does want to run again. how unprecedented would that be? for someone to run such a terrible, awful, miserable failed campaign for the presidency to be epic lihue mill yachted on the national stage and then to turn around and do it again? is there any reason to think it would be any different for perry the second time around? well, the short answer is probably not, but i don't know. take bob dole. he was gerald ford's vice presidential nominee in 1976. made him a national name so he decided to run for president four years later in 1980. and it was a complete catastrophe. he got only 597 votes in new hampshire. like a third of what rick perry got and dropped out. in '84 he got elected stat majority leader so he tried for the white house again in 1988 and this time he gave george h.w. bush a real scare and finished second in the primaries which made him the next in line for the open nomination in 1996.

so i guess dole's example could give perry some hope. there's joe biden. he ran for the 1988 democratic nomination and he looked like he might just grab it. he was raising big money, his speeches were winning rave reviews. his poll numbers were moving. it was real excitement but then it came out some of his most effective campaign trail rhetoric was someone else's. >> why is it that joe biden is the first in his family ever to go to a university? why is it that my wife sitting out there in the audience is the first in her family to ever go to college? >> who a many? the first in a thousand generations to be able to get to university. why is she the first woman in her family in a thousand generations -- >> that comparison set off a huge scandal in 1987 enforced biden out of the race but the

timing was pretty good. he was chairman of the judiciary committee in the senate which was just about to consider ronald reagan's nomination of robert bork who was the most controversial supreme court pick of the last few generations so biden led the fight against bork and won back a lot of his stature. two decades later he was able to land on his party's national ticket. the problem for rick perry, nothing has happened since his 2012 campaign to change the way people see him. dole and biden got second and third chances because they found high-profile ways to redeem themselves. when most thought of joe biden they thought of a long-range senator, the guy who had done the crime bill and fighted robert bork and liked to talk and talk and talk and didn't think of plagiarism anymore but a serious credible politician but ask anyone about rick perry these days and chances are this is still the first thing they think of. >> let's see. >> oh, my. >> i can't. the third one, i can't. sorry. oops.

>> until that changes he's probably climbed as high as he can in politics. texas and other states unleashed by the supreme court stampede to roll back voting rights. that's next. and drop offs begins with arthritis pain... and a choice. take up to 6 tylenol in a day or just 2 aleve for all day relief. all aboard. ♪ all aboard. aren't always the most obvious. take the humble stevia plant, with a surprising secret to share: sweetness. truvia sweetener. zero-calorie sweetness, born from the stevia leaf. from nature, for sweetness.

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with custom communications solutions and responsive, dedicated support, we constantly evolve to meet your needs. every day of the week. centurylink® your link to what's next. the supreme court overturning a crucial component of the voting rights act allowing states with a history of discrimination to make sweeping changes in their voting laws without advance federal approval. within hours of that ruling texas, mississippi and alabama all said they would begin enforcing strict new voter i.d. laws that had been held up by federal review. now ground zero for voter i.d. laws is shifting to north carolina where republicans have total control of both houses and the governor's mansion. the time that happened since 1870. not just a change to voting laws they're facing, republican attacks on reproductive health

and medicaid spending are all under way as well and we'll discuss those in a minute. along with the voter i.d. bill the state gop is advancing there's a push to end popular provisions such as early voting and sunday voting all of which disproportionally affect african-american voters. north carolina naacp president reverend william barber who led nine straight weeks of protests at the state capitol says he is not backing down. >> if you think you're going to take our voting rights without a fight, you ain't seen a headache yet. [ cheers and applause ] we'll fight you every step of the way. >> joined now by denita judge where she leads the organization's redistricting work. msnbc contributor dave weigel and jim morrow at "the charlotte observer" and democratic congressman brad miller now a senior fellow at the center for american progress. gym, you're covering this.

if you could update us on as soon as the supreme court ruling came down we started getting word out of north carolina that the voter i.d. bill had sort of been stalled, had sort of been in a holding pattern waiting for the ruling that the republican legislature was ready to rule on this and other restrictions as well and i guess the republicans in the state senate are saying next week they'll unveil a comprehensive sort of voting package. can you tell us what's expected to be in that and what's expected to happen with it? >> we think it will be next week. they've had a lot of things on their plate including sort of unexpected abortion bill that came up. but, yeah, they're expected to do a voter i.d. bill, which we're not really sure how comprehensive it'll be but it's going to be part of an omni bug election bill with some of the other things you're talking about early voting probably and so the senate is going to come out with that then it would be -- go to the house so it could be, you know, their hands are free now and don't have to get it approved by the justice

department. >> every expectation republican governor pat mccrory, anything that comes through he'll sign so talking about something that will be enacted. denita, what are you thinking and are you thinking of challenging legally? >> we're watching what's happening in north carolina and watching it closely. we had expected that the voter i.d. bill would drop last week and it didn't. we think it's possible the reason for that now they have an opportunity to go back to the drawing board and even make something more restrictive because now it doesn't have to be cleared through under section 5. we do have a litigation team. we have -- we are starting to think about a litigation strategy. this will be a multiprong attack. it will not only be litigation, certainly litigation is one of those things that advancement project is really putting a lot of their efforts and thoughts into how do we combat this type of voter suppression. >> is north carolina potentially

a test case? we look at movement in a lot of states as we said but is north carolina a test case for in a post-section 4 slash maybe section 5 world where you have to initiate the legal action to challenge anything is this sort of a template for what it's going to look like. >> certainly. north carolina is historic in terms of decisions out of the supreme court. it could be a test case but of course we already know there was another case filed in texas with regards to redistricting and certainly they're asking for bail in under section 3 so it could be a test case but certainly there's enough there for us to really grind our heels and really get moving in terms of really pushing back on some of these thing. >> there's another component and, brad, i want to ask you about it. you were basic le a victim of this. redistricting in the republican legislature. there was a democratic governor at the time but she had no sway in this. the republican legislature radically redrew the maps in north carolina in advance of the 2012 elections and basically

obliterated your district and you did not run last year. that's why you're now former congressman and here. but as i understand it there's still a pending lawsuit about how that process was done in terms of packing in minority voters, packing in black voters really to like a couple very specific places. can you talk about what that process was like. >> there are a couple of things, first of all, the voter i.d. is not a small thing. hundreds of thousands of people in north carolina, i've seen the figure half a million who are registered to vote who do vote but don't have driver's licenses which is the typical voter i.d. and in a state that is very closely divided, if you effectively disenfranchise hundreds of thousands of people that skew strongly democratic, you have definitely changed election results. with respect to the redistricting, you know, the decision by the supreme court that effectively eliminates section 5 is all bad except that in places like north carolina, other southern states, the

pending lawsuit is over racial gerrymandering. using the voting rights act as a pretext to create jim crow districts. what the republican legislature did with the congressional map which was i think 7-6 demographic accurate representation of the state's politics created three districts in which democrat -- in which president obama got more than 70% so the other 10% are pretty republican. they did that by saying that the voting rights act required that they put black folks -- >> create opportunities where blacks could win. >> exactly and i think not only the democrats but i think the african-american community recognizes the real effect of that is actually to diminish the political influence of the african-american community stub sanctionly. >> don't forget, the obama justice department did declare those districts. >> i think we can put the

comparison on the screen. this is what the north carolina congressional map looked like, you know, red districts, blue districts in 2010 in 2012. the balance of it, a lot has been made of the statistic. if you took the aggregate congressional vote in 2012 democrats carried what was it like, 51% and got a slight majority. it's 9-4 republicans. that's the effect of packing in so many districts. you know, dave, when i think of north carolina, what strikes me is we've talked about this in the show before. in some ways this is what america might be looking like if mitt romney because north carolina you had -- it's really the first time as we said in over a century where republicans finally got, they got the control of the state house and control of the state governorship and able to do anything they want and this is an example of sort of a flood of things that have been happening in the last six months. >> you saw it in ohio, wisconsin in states, virginia too, a state that the president carried, ohio a state he carried where they have very slanted districts that

now only elect a couple of democrats. you see the kind of melody underneath the music here. when they are trying to map the best possible situation for republicans, they say how can we minimize people who are not like conservative or even moderates. how can we get as many districts about 80% to 90% white and the party is not about to change that. this is -- this does affect their entire agenda, north carolina. i think the country at large if you poll on the voting right act decision the supreme court made it's incredibly unpopular. people as they understand it are against what the court did and against in north carolina as i understand with legislature is doing. the solution is make those people kind of over in one section over here in a pan where they can't affect the outcome and make sure that the people who, you know, we're talking about what they're going to change in the voting system, people who absentee vote and generally republican voters. you can do all this -- >> i wondered, donita, i wonder how you strike the balance.

sort of he'd duct in the voting rights act to create districts of opportunity for, you know, nonwhite candidates where they can win opens up the door since it's so tough to quantify what exactly that means and opens up the door to this kind of abuse. i wonder how you can set the guidelines where you can, you know, create these kind of districts where it's not what we have in north carolina which every democratic voter is going into these two or three districts. >> right, i think you do have to strike a balance in terms of making sure that communities of color are able to elect candidates of their choice and also to make sure that we're not throwing all of the -- all of the people of color in one district where they have no power in the other districts. but also, you know, i just really in terms of what's happening in north carolina in terms of these -- this omnibus bill being passed, i mean, to us north carolina was a model child and when we worked in ohio and worked in other states we would look at north carolina and say, you know what, these are some great things happening there. they had same-day registration, early voting. what we're seeing now is that, you know, sunday voting which is

always been a tool that has been used by african-american churches souls to the polls to vote is being taken away. we're also seeing the early voting dates reduced and, you know, and probably one of the most -- probably the worst bills is the felony disenfranchisement bill where people who have served their time under and had a felony conviction are now required to wait five years to determine whether or not they can get the right to vote back. it has to be a unanimous decision from the boards of elections and then you have to have two people to state that these people are of moral character. we don't want to get away from what north carolina is doing right now and how the -- what the impact will be on people of color and throughout the state and certainly as we look at it in other states are looking and watching too and that may be the bigger problem is that other states may try to do the same thing that north carolina is doing. >> and as i said and jim alluded to this, this is one of sort of

a swirl of things happening in north carolina right now. i want to talk about another, abortion that is playing out right now surprisingly after this. even though she doesn't need them, cheryl burke is cha-cha-ing in depend silhouette briefs for charity, to prove that with soft fabric and waistband, the best protection looks, fits, and feels just like underwear. get a free sample and try for yourself.

so pat mccrory is the republican governor and his reputation was a moderate republican, mayor of charlotte, got elected. he has these republican majorities in both legislature chambers. no republican governor in north carolina has had this and there's been this flood of conservative legislation. this was pat running as a moderate republican being asked about abortion last fall in the debate. >> if you're elected governor, what further restrictions on abortion would you agree to sign? start with you, mr. mccrory. >> none. >> all right. [ laughter ] >> can't really do a poll for

that one. >> so, yeah, seems pretty clear cut but now the surprising news in jim you alluded to it earlier there was an anti-sharia law bill making its way throughout the state senate and what happened? >> they had a surprise meeting, unannounced meeting. it was announced at the last minute but a surprise to a lot of people but in this meeting, to the sharia law bill they added a lot of abortion restrictions parts of three or four bills that had been independent bills and they added that to the sharia law bill along with some restrictions on abortion clinics and the end result of that would be that there are about 16 planned pare parenthood abortion clinics would be down to one after this pass. >> we have that seemingly clear-cut statement by pat mccrory but nobody is quite sure what he's going to do on this. >> no, that's the $64,000 question. now, he can -- he said he wouldn't sign anything.

he could also let the bill pass. if it does pass without his signature, but it's got to go to the house and the speaker of the house is running for the u.s. senate next year so problematic he would even support this. >> tom tillis -- this is where it gets extra complicated. top targets to win back the senate and top recruit when you say he was running is tom tillis who is the house speaker. here's a poll. this is from maybe about a month ago that shows him running five points behind -- ppp poll. kay hagan is five points up. brad, when we look at mccrory and look atom tillis and the senate race and everything has been happening in north carolina. how do you think this has affected the way those two politicians are viewed in the state and in the republican party in general? because we have these giant protests we talked about playing out every monday at the state capitol. is this spilling over beyond the protests to the average --

>> the legislature is very unpopular. they tend to be unpopular almost regardless but there is a widespread understanding in north carolina that the legislature has sort of been off the rails. it probably will affect tillis some. right now tillis, i'm sure, has very low name recognition, even speakers of the house generally tend to. it has started to affect mccrory's numbers but even though he's tried to distance himself from it as much as he can but eventually next year the republicans are going to have to run on this record. >> and, donita, you were sort of talking about this, the idea of the lesson that other states draw from this. how important is it in terms of what happens in 2014, what happens maybe with pat mccrory in 2016. a long way off at this mountain but that is a crucial component in terms of other states drawing lessons of what -- how far republicans in state "x" can go based on what happens to the republicans in north carolina. >> right now the best thing that is happening is that the people

in north carolina are engaged. we cannot afford to be engaged only in 2014, 2016 during those election cycles. we have to remain engaged and informed in terms of what is going on now. and so i think the good thing about it is that the people in ohio and florida, in other places can see north carolina as a model to them to say, you know what, it may not appear we're making a difference but they are making a difference and we're going to continue and we're going to follow that model and that's a good thing. i mean, you can't lose when people stand up. >> and, dave, mccrory is interesting to me because i've been asking myself on the show and asked a few times is it possible in today's republican party to be a genuinely moderate republican? because that was pat's reputation before becoming governor but animated by at this point restive conservative movement forcing this legislation to his desk he signed so much so far. is it possible -- so far the evidence says it's not really

possible because he's pressured by his party to be so conservative. >> you'll be led by the base and pundits that listen to say anything you do that is true to your values is going to be popular. i think republicans when it comes to state backlash in states and what happens electorally they would like it to be the wisconsin recall. push through everything and see scott walker wong and democrats would point to the states that swung republicans, unions got back off the map and won and took them to look at sp-5 in ohio in 2011 that union bill was overturned by the voters. if you are the base you work that hard. in north carolina if you're art pope and spent lots of money to make sure -- >> art pope is like the koch brother of north carolina. >> now the state budget director which is a convenience. we'll see who becomes cbo to director if republicans take the senate. it make ace lot of sense for the base to do that but the democrats have the same problem. look, what happened to all the blue dog democrats?

when the party took power when democrats were in congress the base demanded certain thing, there was a backlash against them and talk about all the reasons they lost congress. i think it might not be healthy but makes a lot of political sense and, no, you can't run away from -- no republican governor who runs we all talk about the creditability that someone like a bobby jindal comes with. they've all been driven right once their legislature has gone that way and virginia most people would tay terry mcauliffe could win. ken is more conservative. that legislature in virginia. once it takes power is so motivated towards getting the long-term goals that are considered a movement enforced people who gave them a chance turn against them. it's a natural cycle but you can't avoid that. you can't -- you can't stay in power if you've ignored what the base wants. >> yeah, the wrap on mccrory, the criticism from progressives and democrats isn't that he's a right winger. it's that he's weak. that he's not going to stand up

to those extreme voices within his party. he's going to go along. to some extent he's played it politically as trying to try angulate a little bit and try to distance himself on that but when it really comes to whether he's going to sign bills or not the betting is all that he will sign the bills that the republican legislature passs in and reminds me so much about the question about mitt romney. is he a secret moderate. grover norquist said all we need is that hand to sign those bills. i swear that's all mitt romney would have been and we're seeing in carolina what it would have looked like nationally. i want to thank donita judge, jim morrill and brad miller now at the center of american progress. abortion issues we'll talk about next. ♪ honey, is he too into this car thing? [ mumbling ] definitely the quattro. ♪

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two years ago as dave weigel reminded us john kasich and his fellow republicans went too far

enacted sb-that limited the collective bargaining rights of public employees and stirred an immediate backlash. cops and firefighters led the charge against it. a repeal referendum was placed on the ballot in november 2011 and voters overwhelmingly chose to take it off the books. kasich paid a serious political price. here were his poll numbers as sb-5 was going down the tubes. 36%, peerous territory for any governor, but since then, something funny has happened. indicati kasich numbers have rebounded up to 54%, the best number since taking office. in a head-to-head matchup with the democrat who will likely oppose him he leads by 14 points. big reason for this is that the economy nationally and in ohio in particular has gotten better over the last few years but it's also helped kasich avoiding provoking big divisive pole

killing controversies like he did with sb5. last sunday night he signed a state budget that included a whole series of measures to restrict abortion in the state. requirement that women seeking abortions first undergo ultrasounds, a ban on transferring women who experience medical economytations to hospitals and he held a signing ceremony but ducked out afterwards without answering questions from reporters. reporters who probably had a lot of questions they wanted to ask because of all the abortion language that had been inserted into the budget. this illustrates a tension that is driving politics in a number of states right now. states that voted for obama twice. states that are blue when it comes to presidential elections. the states that swung hard to the gop in the 2010 midterms. republicans in 2010 won governorships in michigan, maine, pennsylvania, iowa, wisconsin, new mexico, florida and nevada. all of them states that president obama has now carried twice and some cases by lopsided

margins. add in new jersey too where republican chris christie won the governorship in 2009 a year after obama carried the state by 18 points. what's important to remember the voters who put these republicans in charge in 2010 were different than the voters who made these states blue in 2008 and 2012. they were older. they were whiter. they were a lot more conservative. the electorate put john kasich in power in ohio probably sees the abortion restrictions he just signed a lot differently than the electorate that delivered the state to obama last fall. some republican governors have managed this tension better than others. christie seems to be the most obvious success story. he's running about 30 point as head in his current re-election race but a big reason for this is his public partnership with obama in the wake of hurricane sandy, a partnership endeared him to more than a few democrats in new jersey but created friction with national republicans. the republicans christie will need to win over if he wants to win the presidency in 2016. republican governors like tom

corbett in pennsylvania on political life support. quinnipiac poll put him ten points behind his most likely democratic opponent. paul lepage who benefited from both the republican friendly nature of the electorate and three-way race to win his office in 2010. he hasn't even bothered to try to build bridges to voters who backed obama. bitterry reflected medicaid and likened the irs to the get tap po and refused on martin luther king day to meet with the state leaders of the naacp and 53% of them disapprove how he's doing his job. all of the blue states, all of the blue state republican governors who won their jobs in 2010 are due to face the voters next year and christie is due to face them this year. they've had time to win over skeptical voters and in 2010 it might be buttressed about a demographic favorite to their party. they will also have spent the

last four years facing and in many cases going along with policy demands from a national party that voters in their states have rejected in two straight national elections. we want to talk about those states with our guests including a candidate to unseat one of those governors after this. to g? so ready. lots of options, huh? i can help you narrow it down. ok thanks. this one's smudge free. smudge-free. really? and this one beeps when you leave the door open. upgrade your laundry room and kitchen appliances during red white and blue savings. thank you! more saving. more doing. that's the power of the home depot. your choice, maytag or ge washer, now just $399 each.

it was very painful situation. the rash was on my right hip, going all the way down my leg. i'm very athletic and i swim in the ocean. shingles forced me out of the water. the doctor asked me "did you have chickenpox when you were a child?"

the pain level was so high, it became unbearable.

so we're talking about republicans basically governing blue states here with me now barbara bayno, chris christie's democratic challenger for governor this year. back at the table dave weigel and sean trend many e of realclearpolitics.com and grans frankie. we talked in the ink tree about john kasich and what happened in ohio and start playing -- this was sunday night, all this abortion language that was suddenly inserted in the state budget. this was the scene as john kasich signed it. >> now have another budget

signed into law. >> as you can see he offered a few quick remarks and gets up and goes and, first he shakes a few hands. i oversold that then he goes. so the key is he did not answer any questions about the abortion language at the press conference. he has so far as far as we could tell he has not weighed in on this and then we had interesting news unexpectedly on friday. the day after the fourth of july, probably the slowest news day of 2013, you know, in wisconsin, governor scott walker signed a mandatory ultrasound bill not in public, you know, on the slowest news day of the year and so i look at this, grans and is this the new strategy -- walker survived the recall but went through political hell for a few years. you know, kasich was down in the doldrums. is this the new strategy for republican states to be as quiet as possible in giving, you know, sort of conservatives and giving

them what they want? >> i think there's this -- you know, the anti-abortion movement has sustataken on a new strateg. obviously the things that have gotten the most attention but the question of admits privileges between abortion facilities and hospitals and we're seeing the admitting privileges coming up in wisconsin and in ohio and a way to close in because they're dependent on other actors. religious hospitals and so on and in north dakota where you have one remaining abortion providing facility they say that, you know, requiring them to have admitting privileges like this requires them to have ten people per year sent over to some hospital. but they've only sent over one person in the last ten years so can't figure out a way to make it happen. >> sean, you're in ohio. how is this playing out so far? >> you know, the strategy seems

to be working somewhat there because it's not something dominating the evening news. it's not something i'm reading on the front page of the newspaper so i think your intuition is exactly correct. kasich got beat up in the first couple of years of his term and now for the controversial issues i think he wants to keep it a little bit quiet. >> but there is you say the controversial issues, there's sort of a recognition he does not want to be too closely identified with it and get the politics are good to keep your distance but still feeling the pressure. dave, the republican party has been a clearly sort of top to bottom pro-life party basically going back to 1980 when it nominated ronald reagan. it was almost like reagan and bush sr. would wink at the pro-lifers and put the plank in the platform but never delivered that much. it seems like there is a lot more pressure in today's republican party trickling down to the state legislative level to be seriously delivering on abortion. it wasn't there before.

>> just like in the north carolina segment where pat mccrory said he wouldn't do that and now he's faced with do that. if you ask after todd akin they'd all say no, it was a distraction for you to bring it up. they realize it's not a winning issue. but they're getting better at delivering the base and i think the pro-life movement is better pushing through attrition policies that might not blow up until -- we don't seem to notice these things until they form an amoeba across several states of similar-looking laws. no, i think the base is et going more of what it wanted than it has for quite some time. in the '90s you had some of this. some critical mass but all these states where you now have republican legislatures, they move to stamp this even if they said it's not a key issue for us. >> so, barbara, you're in new jersey, the difference there as we talking about a lot of states where republican governors elected in 2010 were given republican legislatures so able

to put a lot more legislation through in new jersey democrats still control the state assembly. how much of a block has it been on what christie has tried to do? >> with respect to social issues it's been somewhat of a block. certainly on abortion issues, on women's health issues, we've tried. we've tried to push back but this is a governor who zeroed out funding for women's health and consecutive budgets. we've tried to override his veto and unfortunately don't have enough democrats to do that. >> well, that's something i want to ask you. that's the fascinating thing i see in new jersey you were on the floor in the senate arguing against the budget that was passed a couple weeks ago that has these cuts you're talking about and there was very strong support from democrats for this budget and that seems to be part of the story of christie's governorship a democratic party divided. i don't want to get too pa roque kwal but important stuff and understand why he's powerful. there's a democratic power broker in south jersey loyalist

in the state legislature have given chris christie a lot of what he wants and a few allies that have given him what he wants in a lot of cases. >> if you talk about certain issues like with respect to collective bargaining and i was a majority leader in the new jersey senate and i stood up against it and i lost my majority leader position and i would do it again but on social issues such as marriage equality, women's right to choose, pay equity, planned parenthood this governor is way off to the right and out of step with the people of new jersey and we have tried to stop him but, again, we don't enough democrats to do so. but this is a governor who is trying to do somewhat of an awkward dance, he's trying to decide whether or not he wants to appeal to the primary voters in 2016 or the general election voters in 2013 in new jersey and i think he's trying to thread that needle and it's not so easy now that doma has come down. >> that new jersey and chris christie right now on the issue of gay marriage sets up an interesting test between, you know, republicans trying to

appeal to their national base and a state that sees things differently and gay marriage is a perfect example. everything you need for a great summer. this 5-piece dining set on clearance, save over $49! marco! polo! this metal frame pool on rollback, you save $80! woo! fire up the savings. this 4 burner grill on rollback, you save $11. how bout all these bikes on rollback? like this mongoose adult bike, you save over $20! get more summer for your money at walmart's super summer savings event going on right now at your local walmart.

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we treat you like you'd treat you. get the it card and talk to a real person. setting up our next segment. i wanted to talk about chris christie and the response how a republican governor in a blue state responds on an issue like gay marriage because new jersey, we could put this, first of all, nasdaq state opinion on the question of legalizing gay marriage. it's 2-1. it's 59-30. strongly for gay marriage so the supreme court, you know, strikes down doma, defense of marriage act, last week, chris christie goes on and is asked about it. this is what he says. >> they, the court, without a basis and standing substituted their own judgment for the judgment of a republican congress and a democratic president in the republican congress in the '90s and bill clinton and i thought that justice kennedy's opinion in many respects was incredibly insulting to those people.

>> there's a lot in that, senator buono but basically i was struck by, you know, chris christie's surge in popularity last year being associated with barack obama, it was being associated with making himself likable to obama. >> no, associated with him responding to a natural disaster. that's what is driving his poll numbers but his response to doma is staggering. the fact he called it insulting. insulting to whom. i call it insulting to our gay brothers and sisters saying they have to go to another state to get married. their love is worth less. i find that insulting. it's interesting he calls out the supreme court. well, i didn't hear him call out the supreme court on the voting rights act. when he was asked about his opinion on that he said he had no opinion. this is somebody who doesn't even have to be asked his opinion to give it. >> well, right. that's the interesting thing because doma passed by congress in 1996. he's saying how dare the supreme court pass something -- the vra reauthorized by congress in 2006 and not saying anything.

>> we passed the marriage equality act and that's what he's seeking to overrule. >> he vetoed it in new jersey, gay marriage. that argument of besmirching the legacy of bill clinton on doma, garance. >> he's in denial about what happened in the 1990s this. is just classic american history. we change our views on something and suddenly we pretend we're never were that other way and i think there's a kind of moment he's just denying what actually happened in the 1990s. >> even bill clinton himself said no, i don't -- sean, i wonder when i look at christie and look at the issue the gay marriage and where public opinion is trending on this, when will it be safe? will it ever be safe for a republican to run for president and support gay marriage? >> i think it will. not in 2016 but even within the republican party you see the same age breakdown that we see in the national polls, younger republicans are more in favor of gay marriage or marriage equality than older republicans are. i think we're probably getting

into the 2020s before it's safe for a republican candidate to run for president with a strong pro-marriage equality stance. >> so what is the evolution look like i guess for the republican party? is there like an interim step? will it become just a state's right issue? will that be what republicans start saying? i'm curious. do you have a sense of that? >> i had always thought it would run to a civil unions first and then marriage equality but i don't think that's going to be the evolution. i think it'll be let's leave it to the sort and embrace marriage equality full force. >> the interesting thing that christie has said on this. he vetoed gay marriage. not on the books because of chris christie but also said let's have a referendum on this and put this on the ballot. if it becomes the law of the state i won't fight it. it seems like we had -- i'm blanking on his name -- we had -- richard socarites --

there's a dilemma about the basic issue of should minority group rights ever be put to a public test like that? >> no, that's why i think californians went for getting the court to value date this instead of having voters to say the civil right was valid -- they never believed that argument to be because 53% of californians said there was no right, there should be no right. i think -- i guess it also speaks to his confidence, would he want this on the ballot with him? christie's moved the senate election three weeks or four weeks ahead of his own election. >> we could spend 24 million on a separate referendum. >> in general, somebody who has a fluid view of what should -- when voters should and should not do things. >> but it is -- that idea, though, senator, of having a referendum on gay marriage, i've seen polling in new jersey that says that is a popular idea with the public and it does make me wonder we talk about the difficulty of christie threading the needle. with public opinion has he threaded the needle in this

issue where he's against public opinion on the basic issue of gay marriage but then he says, well, let's have a referendum and let you all decide and overwhelmingly they say they do want it. >> he needs to release the republican legislatures that they can override his veto. it would be done. there is one man standing behind preventing marriage equality in new jersey and it's chris christie. this is what he does know. he knows that he is toast in a republican primary in 2016 with the diminishing republican base if he releases his republican legislatures to override his veto. he won't do that he cannot tolerate that but that's what he should do. yeah, i oppose putting it on as a referendum because of the money behind it. we have another ballot initiative coming up this november 5th that would increase minimum wage and tie to a cost of living increase and we know that there are very powerful wealthy money interests that are lined up to put a lot of money behind defeating that and those are the same people that this

governor could marshal those forces to skewer the results. >> i do want to ask you quickly, though, we've talked about this 2013 new jersey race and i admit i said i don't think much of your chances to win and you're running far behind. >> it hurts me. >> sorry to say but -- >> i've known you for a long time. >> i like you a lot and i used to cover you -- i don't mean it personally but if you could make your case for when and how this race is going to turn around in your favor. >> absolutely. well, you know, the same polls showed this governor has wide approval on rebuilding after a superstorm sandy, if you dig down just a little bit and you ask people what will drive them to the polls, it's the pocketbook issues, it's jobs and the economy. it's property taxes. we have record high property taxes in new jersey under this governor. they've gone up 18% in his first three years in office. but people aren't -- that's what people will vote on. his job approval numbers are in the low 40s but people aren't focused on that. after labor day, they will. so i can tell you that once they

focus on those, and those same folks that are polled on the -- on those issues with regard to sandy, a lot of them think he's pro-marriage equality and pro-choice. people need to be informed better and it's no wonder that they're not focused on this. they're struggling under, you know, one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation, highest property taxes in the nation. 400,000 out of work. the middle class has shrunk under this governor. we have four months until the election. an eternity in politics and in life and we are going to be sure to make sure that voters have the information they need to make an informed decision. >> all right. it's one we'll keep watching on the show and hope to have you back before the electric. please don't hold that against me. so what should we know today? my answers are after this. waiting to look younger? don't wait. [ female announcer ] get younger looking skin fast. with new olay regenerist micro-sculpting cream. the next generation with 2 new anti-aging ingredients. it penetrates rapidly.

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these deals aren't just hot... they're explosive! sleep train's 4th of july sale ends sunday. ♪ sleep train ♪ your ticket to a better night's sleep ♪ so what should we know for today? we should know it is now legal to home brew beer in all 50 states. home brewing has been legal at the federal level since the late

1970s but some statewide bans remain, the last of which was mississippi. the bill to end was passed in may and went into effect last monday. the beer was championed by a local beer advocacy group called raise your pints. clarify status of home brewing as a legal, fun, and wholesome hobby. according to home brewers association, there are more than a million home brewers in the united states. even the white house has its own home brew. it's why president obama did not weigh in on the bill. we assume he's raising a pint to it. tulsa, oklahoma, will probably not host olympics after "new york times" ran a story about the unofficial committee to bring it there, the mayor announced he wasn't backing a bid. the mayor previously supported one but his comments end any hope of a tulsa olympics, if it ever kpigsed at all. despite the excitement, tulsa only has a third of the required hotel rooms for the city, the

cost of the game would be half the state's budget. the winter olympics would be a better bet or maybe the luge. we should note the george zimmerman trial came to a halt when skype witness was interrupted by a caller, then another. it happened because the prosecutor's skype name was clearly displayed on the trial and broadcast during live tv. so naturally some people started calling in. >> is it coming across? >> it's someone calling the destination. >> after that disruption, we know that the witness was able to testify again, this time before speakerphone. former illinois governor george ryan was release freddie hoto c

confined, sentenced for corruption, sent more than five users in a federal prison. it was reduced one year for good behavior, under house arrest since january. upon being released ryan promptly got a haircut. hopefully the same will be true for the other convicted governor rob blagojevich completing his 14-year sentence. find out what my other guests know? >> i would like to know what governor christie thinks of walker's decision to sign on a friday evening, a holiday weekend, a piece of legislation that severely restricts women's rights to have an abortion. >> dave. >> should know house republicans having town hall meetings, including head judiciary, one immigration soft point they have been finding, when asked if they think young children brought to this country by their parents, they are generally saying yes. they realize the politics there and are trying to find a way out on the issue. >> people ask me all the time if

the democrats can take back the house in 2014. people should know strongest cater of midterm perform an is president's approval. when he gets above 55%, do well, below that poorly. right now barack obama is 46%. democrats have work to do before the house is in play. >> george bush off the sidelines after self-imposed silence, he's been talking about immigration reform and backing it at a speech at the presidential center in dallas. i think this will be important. >> it will be interesting to watch the dynamics of that, too. talk about the conservative revolt over this. will that hasten or halt. want to thank state senator of new jersey, real clear politics and the atlantic guests. thank you for getting up and thank you for joining us. be back next week saturday and sunday 8:00 a.m., guests will include congresswoman kelly.

next melissa harris-perry live from the essence festival in new orleans. the next move in the fight to protect voting rights. are we witnessing a rebirth of the civil rights movement. mhp coming up live from the essence festival in new orleans. we'll see you here next week on ooupz. "up." ♪ summer's best event from cadillac. let summer try and pass you by. lease this all-new cadillac ats for around $299 per month or purchase for 0% apr for 60 months. come in now for the best offers of the model year.

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to mobile apps, small business solutions from at&t have the security you need to get you there. call us. we can show you how at&t solutions can help you do what you do... even better. ♪ where is the republican party booth here at the essence festival? plus buddy here to debate school vouchers. and the one and only ileana van zandt joins me live. first, more nerdland from new orleans, where it's time it fight back and be heard. go